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More than 11 million people developed dementia worldwide in 2023, with the number of new cases projected to more than double by 2050 as populations age, according to an international study led by UNSW Sydney.
The research estimated that there were 11.4 million new dementia cases globally in 2023 and forecasts annual diagnoses will reach 24.7 million by mid-century if current incidence rates remain unchanged.
The study analysed data from more than 38,000 people across 22 longitudinal studies spanning 18 countries and territories, resulting in what the researchers have described as one of the most comprehensive global assessments of dementia incidence to date.
Lead author Dr Ashleigh Vella, from UNSW Sydney’s Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing (CHeBA), said the findings offered new insights into where dementia risk is greatest.
“For the first time, we can compare dementia incidence across a geographically diverse group of populations using the same statistical approach, giving us a clearer picture of where and among whom new cases are occurring,” she said.
Unlike prevalence studies, which measure the total number of people living with dementia, the research focused on incidence, or the number of new cases occurring each year. Researchers say this provides a clearer picture of future demand for diagnosis, treatment and support services.
The study found dementia incidence was higher among women than men, with age-standardised rates of 10.6 cases per 1,000 person-years, compared with 8.6 among men.
Researchers also identified a substantial gap between low- and middle-income countries and high-income nations. Dementia incidence was estimated at 13.6 cases per 1,000 person-years in low- and middle-income countries, compared with 8.3 in wealthier countries.
“Despite this, dementia research predominantly occurs in high-income countries, creating unequal representation, skewed global estimates, and an incomplete regional understanding of risk and care requirements, which bias global prevention strategies,” the research stated.
Study senior author and CHeBA co-director Professor Perminder Sachdev said the higher incidences in low- and middle-income countries are “particularly concerning”.
“These regions are experiencing rapid population ageing while often having the fewest resources for prevention, diagnosis and care,” he said. “Our findings highlight the urgent need to strengthen dementia risk reduction and health-care capacity globally, while investing in better local data so services can be planned according to the needs of individual countries.”
More than 57 million people are currently living with dementia worldwide, but projections suggest that number will grow to around 150 million by 2050.
CHeBA co-director Professor Henry Brodaty said robust prevention measures are key.
“Twenty-four million new cases of dementia every year would place enormous pressure on individuals, families, health systems and economies around the world,” he said. “We need to act across the spectrum – from reducing modifiable risk factors and identifying people at risk earlier, through to improving diagnosis, treatment and care.”
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